Rise score (0–100)

For each AI-native company in the Risers cohort:

rise_score =  0.35 · z(headcount_30d_%)
            + 0.25 · z(headcount_90d_%)
            + 0.15 · z(launch_count_30d)
            + 0.15 · z(funding_events_90d, weighted_by_amount)
            + 0.10 · z(hn_mentions_30d)        // Phase 2

then min-max normalize to 0–100 across the cohort for the week.

Cut score (0–100)

For each legacy SaaS incumbent in the Cuts cohort:

cut_score  =  0.40 · z(layoff_severity_90d)   // pct × recency × ai_attribution
            + 0.25 · z(-headcount_30d_%)
            + 0.15 · z(-headcount_90d_%)
            + 0.10 · z(-stock_move_30d_%)       // public only
            + 0.10 · at_risk_category_bonus

then min-max normalize to 0–100 across the cohort for the week.

The pressure vs. efficiency split

A falling headcount at a legacy SaaS company isn't always the same story. Sometimes it's a company being disrupted by AI-native competitors. Sometimes it's a company using AI to run leaner — cutting roles while revenue grows. Both end up on the Cuts side of the index, but they mean very different things for investors, employees, and the market.

For every Cut, we classify the last 180 days of layoff announcements:

• Under pressure — layoffs announced with no AI-efficiency rationale in the majority of cases. Genuine AI disruption victims.
• AI efficiency — majority of recent layoffs explicitly attribute the cuts to AI productivity gains. Company restructuring around AI, not being displaced by it.
• Attrition only — contracting via hiring freezes or attrition, with no announced layoffs.

Phase 2 plan: layer in revenue-per-employee trajectory (from 10-Q filings for public companies) and 30-day stock moves to sharpen the classification. A company shedding roles while revenue rises is a very different investment case from one where both are falling.

Guardrails

• Headcount % changes are capped at ±50% to limit single-data-error blast radius.
• Companies with <90 days of tracked history get a null score, not a forced zero.
• Companies with <50 employees are flagged "small base" and shown in a separate sub-bucket so noise doesn't dominate.

Data sources

• Headcount: Apify LinkedIn Company Scraper (weekly snapshots)
• Layoffs: layoffs.fyi (matched to companies by name)
• Launches: Product Hunt API
• Funding: SEC EDGAR Form D + curated press
• Stock moves: yfinance (public companies)

Phase 1 note: The data shown today is generated by a deterministic synthetic model calibrated against publicly known reference points. Real ingestion ships in Phase 2.